From Coalition to Collision: Marcos-Duterte Rift and the High-stakes Road to 2028

The 2025 midterm elections in the Philippines in May have produced more than just a new set of lawmakers and local government leaders — they have redrawn the country's political map in the next three years. What was once a cohesive ruling coalition in 2022 is now showing signs of serious collision between the camp of President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. and his erstwhile ally, Vice President Sara Duterte. This emerging rift, reflected in competing senatorial slates and local alliances, marks a potential realignment that could define not just the trajectory of the 2028 presidential race but more importantly the incumbent administration’s political strategy and priorities.

For businesses operating in the Philippines, particularly foreign investors, the stakes are high. These elections are not just a barometer of political sentiment—they shape legislative dynamics, influence policy implementation, and affect the stability needed for long-term planning and capital deployment. In this evolving environment, political intelligence is not optional—it is essential.

The 12 New Senators

Five days after election day on May 12, 2025, the Commission on Elections proclaimed 12 new senators. The senatorial race was led by re-electionist Senator Christopher (Bong) Go, followed by former senator Paolo Benigno (Bam) Aquino, re-electionist Senator Ronald (Bato) dela Rosa,  partylist representative Erwin Tulfo, former senator Francis Pangilinan, and former partylist congressman Rodante Marcoleta. The other six new senators elected in office are Panfilo (Ping) Lacson, Vicente (Tito) Sotto III, Pia Cayetano, Camille Villar, Lito Lapid, and Imee Marcos.

Of the 11 candidates endorsed by President Marcos administration’s coalition party Alyansa Para sa Bagong Pilipinas (Alyansa), only four won the elections. These four candidates include Ping Lacson, Tito Sotto, Pia Cayetano, and Lito Lapid. Although Camille Villar was initially part of Alyansa, she was conspicuously absent in the campaign sorties of the party in the run up to the elections. Presidential sister Imee Marcos was earlier included in the Alyansa senatorial slate but eventually withdrew from the coalition citing differences over the arrest of former president Rodrigo Duterte. It is also worthy to note that none of 12 newly elected senators come from Partido Federal ng Pilipinas, the party chaired by President Marcos.

Meanwhile, three of the newly elected senators were openly backed by Vice-President Sara Duterte. These candidates include Bong Go, who topped the race with over 27 million votes, re-electionist Bato dela Rosa, and congressman Rodante Marcoleta. While Camille Villar and Imee Marcos were earlier part of President Marcos’ Alyansa slate, the two were eventually adopted as guest candidates of the Duterte-backed senatorial ticket.

Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan, on the other hand, showed strong numbers in the senate race, with the former placing second and the latter ending up in fourth place. The impressive showing of two indicate a modest resurgence of the Liberal Party, which has lost its ground at the national level politics after the defeat of its two presidential candidates in previous elections.

Of the 12 newly elected senators, three candidates pulled off surprise victories: Aquino, Pangilinan, and Marcoleta. All three did not figure highly in popularity surveys and ranked between 16th and 18th in the survey conducted by the Social Weather Stations (SWS) a week before the election. Popular candidates like Ben Tulfo, Bong Revilla, and Abby Binay, who consistently figured in the top 12 surveys, fell short in election results, ranking 13th, 14th, and 15th.

The sudden surge of Aquino, Pangilinan, and Marcoleta highlights how swiftly momentum can change in the final stretch of a campaign—and how national surveys, though informative, often miss the influence of grassroots operations, local political machinery, and last-minute endorsements that ultimately determine election results. Both Aquino and Marcoleta were among just eight candidates endorsed by the religious group Iglesia ni Cristo (INC) shortly before election day. Aside from the two, the other six INC-endorsed senator candidates were Revilla, Cayetano, dela Rosa, Go, Marcos, and Villar. Except for Revilla, all other senator candidates endorsed by the religious group secured seats in the senate.

This recalibrated balance of power signals a more contested legislative environment in the Senate, with less predictability and greater need for strategic lobbying and coalition-building. Party allegiances in the House of Representatives are also likely to experience significant shifts given the election turnout at the local government level.

Mixed Fortunes for Political Dynasties

The midterm elections at the local level delivered mixed signals with several vote-rich provinces toppling long-standing political dynasties, while others continue to be bastions of powerful clans. In Cebu Province, Duterte-endorsed Pamela Baricuatro defeated Gwen Garcia in the gubernatorial race. Garcia, who had the support of President Marcos’ Alyansa party, has been governor of Cebu since 2004 after succeeding his father Pablo Garcia, who was governor of Cebu since 1995.

Another political dynasty also fell in Catanduanes, where an independent candidate, Patrick Azanza, beat incumbent vice-governor Peter Cua, whose family ruled the province for nearly two decades. In Laguna, the Hernandez family’s hopes to extend its control of the province was cut by former journalist Sol Aragones, who unseated congresswoman Ruth Hernandez.

In Zamboanga City, Mannix and John Dalipe both lost their electoral bids after serving three consecutive terms in their respective posts. Mannix, who was in his third and final term as congressman lost the mayoralty race to Khymer Olaso. John, who was also in his third and final term as mayor of the city, lost his congressional bid to village chieftain Jerry Perez. It is worthy of note that Mannix was the majority leader in the House of Representative and is one of the trusted congressmen of Speaker Martin Romualdez, who is the first cousin of President Marcos. The Jalosjos dynasty likewise lost its foothold in Zamboanga del Norte after all members of the political clan lost in their respective bids.

By and large, however, political dynasties continue to lord over many provinces and cities in the Philippines. Davao City reaffirmed its loyalty to the Duterte family, delivering a sweep to its local candidates. Ilocos Norte and Ilocos Sur maintained the Marcos family’s influence. Although unsuccessful in the senatorial race, family members of former senator Bong Revila and Francis Tolentino remain in power in Cavite. The Ynares clan likewise remain unshaken in Rizal Province. In the National Capital Region (NCR), cities like Makati, Taguig, Mandaluyong, and Quezon City remained bastions of dynastic control, with the Binays, Cayetanos, Abalos, and Belmontes holding firm.

Celebrity Power in Local Elections

Celebrity power in local elections appears to be diminishing after several celebrities running for office failed to secure victories. Former senator and action star Bong Revilla fell out of the winning 12 senators placing 14th in the race. Boxing icon Manny Pacquiao, who ran for president in 2022, also lost in the senate race. Other notable celebrities who lost their senatorial bids in the midterm elections were singer and lawyer Jimmy Bondoc who placed 17th, veteran actor Philip Salvador who placed 19th, and television host Willie Revillame placed 22nd.

Still, a good number of celebrity candidates were successful in the elections. Three celebrities are among the newly elected senators: radio and TV host Erwin Tulfo, placed 4th, TV host and actor Tito Sotto placed 8th, and action star Lito Lapid placed 11th. In Batangas Province, famed actress Vilma Santos secured the gubernatorial seat, while former actor Isko Moreno, who ran for president in 2022, is set to return as Manila mayor. Celebrity couple Richard Gomez and Lucy Torres-Gomez, meanwhile, both won in their electoral bids with Richard re-elected as congressman and Lucy entering her second term as mayor of Ormoc City.

The Road Ahead

Among the first agenda expected from the new set of lawmakers in the Senate is the impeachment filed against Vice-President Sara Duterte over allegations including the misuse of confidential funds during her tenure as Secretary of Education and purported threats against President Marcos. Earlier in February, the House of Representatives transmitted the articles of impeachment to the Senate, where a two-thirds majority is required for conviction. The Senate, now composed of various political factions, holds the authority to either uphold or dismiss the impeachment charges against her, and is expected to begin the impeachment process as early as June this year.

A conviction of Sara Duterte in the impeachment would perpetually disqualify her from holding public office, which will be crucial to the Philippines’ presidential elections in 2028 given that she is an expected contender. With neither Marcos and Duterte factions enjoying majority wins in the midterm senatorial elections, the impending impeachment trial of the vice-president will be pivotal not only to the political landscape of the country in the next three years but also to the political careers of the senators sitting in the impeachment tribunal. In order to be acquitted, Duterte needs eight votes from the Senate. It is assumed that the vice-president already has seven supporters in the Senate, including Bong Go, Ronald dela Rosa, Robin Padilla, Rodante Marcoleta, Camille Villar, Imee Marcos, and Alan Peter Cayetano.

Despite the corruption allegations, the vice-president continues to enjoy high approval ratings and is the only top government official in the country whose performance ratings got better based on recent polls conducted by Pulse Asia, OCTA, and SWS. If the vice-president continues to be popular, senators aspiring for re-election in 2028 may want to avoid antagonizing Duterte supporters by either junking the impeachment complaint against her or abstaining in the impeachment trial. Beyond the Senate, local government officials, including congressmen, governors, and mayors, are also likely to reconsider their political alignments to ensure their political survival in the next elections. The impeachment is likely to be broadcast and arguments, decisions, and likely drama are expected to elicit public opinion that will either make or break the political careers of the personalities involved in the trial.

Aside from acquittal and conviction, there is the possibility of the vice-president resigning from her post. In this case, the impeachment proceedings may continue, focusing on the issue of disqualification. However, Duterte’s resignation would render her removal moot, and she would not face the penalties associated with impeachment. In either case, the political landscape would be significantly altered, with the Duterte-Marcos alliance facing a critical juncture.

The vice-president is widely expected to vie for the country’s top post, but it remains unclear who her likely rivals will be. Congressman  Martin Romualdez, first cousin of President Marcos, is touted as a likely contender to be fielded by the Marcos camp. However, Romualdez’s dismal showing in Pulse Asia’s recent approval ratings as House Speaker does not appear to be encouraging and his popularity at a national level remains to be tested. It is also noteworthy that no House Speaker has been successful in winning in a presidential election post martial law era.

Some suggest that the Marcos camp could consider an alliance with the Liberal Party  with leading opposition figures such as Risa Hontivero, Bam Aquino, and even former vice-president Leni Robredo running alongside a Marcos-endorsed presidential candidate and present a unified front against Duterte in 2028. Former senator and former justice secretary Leila de Lima, who was recently elected as partylist representative, could also emerge as a significant opposition figure in the 2028 elections after reports indicate her possible inclusion in the House prosecution panel for the upcoming impeachment trial against the vice-president. An alliance with the Marcos camp, however, may not appeal to hard core Liberal Party supporters as the latter has historically positioned itself as the chief opposition to the Marcos dictatorship (1972-1986), and as such undermines the party’s moral and ideological foundations. Party loyalty in Philippine politics, though, is notoriously weak and often plays a secondary role to personal alliances, political survival, and access to resources. 

Another alternative for the Marcos camp is roping in Senator Raffy Tulfo, who is an independent and finished third in the senatorial race in 2022. Tulfo was behind Sara Duterte in a presidential poll conducted by public opinion research firm WR Numero Research in March this year. Duterte garnered 29% preference, while Tulfo had 19%. At an earlier poll conducted by Pulse Asia in March last year, Tulfo was ahead of Duterte with 35% preference, while the vice-president was a close second with 34%.

Beyond Elections

The new composition of the Senate and House of Representatives likewise presents challenges for President Marcos in advancing his legislative agenda. President Marcos, recently asked all Cabinet secretaries to resign, which demonstrates a strategic move to realign his administration and address public dissatisfaction. The move is likewise seen as a loyalty check in the president’s cabinet to ensure that all his appointed officials are on the same page in the administration’s political agenda.

A shuffle in cabinet leaders could present changes in the government’s key policy areas, such as infrastructure development, energy sector liberalization, and foreign investment regulations. As such, it is pertinent that business leaders and investors monitor the composition of cabinet heads as well as congressional committees, as they will play crucial roles in shaping the country's policy direction. Moreover, new leaderships at the local government units, especially in areas where longstanding dynasties have been unseated, are likely to institute new processes on how things are done at the local level that could either be disruptive or positive for business.

Businessmen and investors, therefore, need to be prescient on how the prevailing political dynamics in the Philippines could impact the local economy and market. Foresight and good governance are essential for navigating potential risks and identifying opportunities. Grapevine Intelligence Consultancy remains committed to providing in-depth political analysis and strategic insights to support informed decision-making in this evolving environment.

Grapevine Asia Partners is a boutique risk consultancy established by a team of skilled corporate-intelligence research analysts and anti-fraud experts, who collectively have decades of experience in Asia, particularly in Greater China and Southeast Asia. Our firm actively monitors policy changes and regulatory investigations involving multinational companies. Aside from collecting, interpreting, and analyzing up-to-date information from credible sources, Grapevine Asia also supports clients in liaising with law enforcement and regulatory agencies to facilitate case resolution. We have extensive experience in dealing with law enforcement, particularly on matters involving embezzlement, private sector bribery, non-compete violation and trade secrets theft, and intellectual property infringement.